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Prediction for CME (2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-10-16T12:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27320/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is C7.5 class flare starting at 2023-10-16T10:31Z and associated eruption. The flare can be best seen in SDO AIA 131/193, opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and dimming and post eruptive loops are also seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival Signature: Characterized by a weak amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 10nT at 2023-10-20T12:38Z. Subsequent increases were observed in density and temperature. This was followed by a rotation in magnetic field components during which an extended period of negative Bz was observed from around 2023-10-20T17:30Z to 2023-10-21T08:00Z. This arrival signature may be reflective of a weak arrival/glancing blow from CME: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T07:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T13:41Z (-9.5h, +12.37h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/10/16 12:30Z
Plane of Sky 1: 20:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 03:10Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
POS Difference: 6:50
POS Midpoint: 23:45Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:15

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.64
Travel Time: ~8.64 * 11:15 = 97:11

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-10-20T13:41Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5

Lead Time: 79.68 hour(s)
Difference: -6.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-10-16T23:49Z

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